NFL mock draft 2026: AI predicts lowly Jets landing QB Ty Simpson

Artificial intelligencehas come a long way in the last few years. But the "intelligence" in question can occasionally have its limits.

USA TODAY Sports

USA TODAY Sports put Alphabet Inc.'s AI product –Google Gemini– to the test by having the language-learning model put together its ownmock draft.

In its mock, Google Gemini made some no-brainer moves near the top of the board. Near the bottom, the LLM went for a couple of reaches on lower-rated prospects.

Indiana quarterbackFernando Mendoza, as almost every expert predicts, went to theLas Vegas Raiderswith the No. 1 overall pick. Ohio State LB/edge rusherArvell Reesewent to theNew York Jetswith the No. 2 overall pick, once again in line with most expert predictions.

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Further down in the draft order, Google's LLM continued to make rational draft picks that aligned with teams' needs.

Outside of needing a slight course correction – Gemini at first did not account for the Rams' and Broncos' trades of first-round picks forTrent McDuffieandJaylen Waddle, respectively – the biggest shocks were the aforementioned reaches for prospects. A few players outside of the top 32 players on USA TODAY Sports'Ayrton Ostly's big boardsnuck into the back end of the first round in the Google AI mock draft.

Here's a complete look at the AI's picks in a 2026 NFL mock draft, paired with a USA TODAY Sports writer's thoughts on each selection:

1. Las Vegas Raiders – Fernando Mendoza, QB, Indiana 2. New York Jets – Arvell Reese, LB/DE, Ohio State <p style=3. Arizona Cardinals – David Bailey, OLB/DE, Texas Tech

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=4. Tennessee Titans – Sonny Styles, LB, Ohio State

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=5. New York Giants – Jeremiyah Love, RB, Notre Dame

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=6. Cleveland Browns – Monroe Freeling, OT, Georgia

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=7. Washington Commanders – Caleb Downs, S, Ohio State

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=8. New Orleans Saints – Carnell Tate, WR, Ohio State

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=9. Kansas City Chiefs – Rueben Bain Jr., DE, Miami (Fla.)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=10. Cincinnati Bengals – Dillon Thieneman, S, Oregon

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=11. Miami Dolphins – Francis Mauigoa, OT/G, Miami (Fla.)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=12. Dallas Cowboys – Mansoor Delane, CB, LSU

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=13. Los Angeles Rams (from Atlanta Falcons) – Makai Lemon, WR, USC

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> 14. Baltimore Ravens – Olaivavega Ioane, G, Penn State <p style=15. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Akheem Mesidor, DE, Miami (Fla.)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=16. Jets (from Indianapolis Colts) – Jordyn Tyson, WR, Arizona State

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=17. Detroit Lions – Spencer Fano, OT/G, Utah

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=18. Minnesota Vikings – Jermod McCoy, CB, Tennessee

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=19. Carolina Panthers - Kenyon Sadiq, TE, Oregon

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> 20. Dallas Cowboys – CJ Allen, LB, Georgia <p style=21. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kadyn Proctor, OT/G, Alabama

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=22. Los Angeles Chargers – T.J. Parker, DE/OLB, Clemson

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=23. Philadelphia Eagles – Keldric Faulk, DE, Auburn

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=24. Cleveland Browns – Omar Cooper Jr., WR, Indiana

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=25. Chicago Bears – Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, S, Toledo

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=26. Buffalo Bills – Cashius Howell, OLB, Texas A&M

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> 27. San Francisco 49ers – Caleb Lomu, OT, Utah 28. Houston Texans – Blake Miller, OT, Clemson <p style=29. Kansas City Chiefs (from Los Angeles Rams) – Colton Hood, CB, Tennessee

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=30. Miami Dolphins (from Denver Broncos) – Denzel Boston, WR, Washington

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> 31. New England Patriots – Zion Young, DE/OLB, Missouri <p style=32. Seattle Seahawks – Avieon Terrell, CB, Clemson

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" />

NFL mock draft: Top-10 surprises in latest first-round projection

BIG BOARD:Ranking the top 150 best players available in 2026 draft

2026 NFL mock draft: First-round AI picks

1.Las Vegas Raiders: QB Fernando Mendoza, Indiana

An easy, no-brainer pick here from Gemini. Mendoza is widely considered the top quarterback prospect in the 2026 class and a lock for the Raiders at No. 1.

2.New York Jets: Edge Arvell Reese, Ohio State

Once again, a non-controversial pick by the Google-sponsored LLM. Reese is the No. 1 player onUSA TODAY Sports' 2026 big board, and the Jets could use the help on the edge after trading away Jermaine Johnson II.

3.Arizona Cardinals: Edge David Bailey, Texas Tech

The Cardinals are a team in need of help in the trenches on both sides of the ball. As a result, many experts have either gone with the top edge rusher or top offensive tackle available at No. 3 overall in mock drafts. Gemini opted for the top edge rusher left on the board after Reese went to the Jets at No. 2, which is hard to argue with. Bailey had 81 pressures, 15 sacks and 23 quarterback hits in 2025.

4.Tennessee Titans: RB Jeremiyah Love, Notre Dame

Since the NFL combine, Love to the Titans has been a common pairing. The Notre Dame product ran a 4.36-second 40 in Indianapolis with excellent work in field drills to match the strong résumé he put on tape during his collegiate career. USA TODAY Sports' Michael Middlehurst-Schwartz deviated slightly in hislatest mock draft, having Tennessee opt for the other NFL combine standout in linebacker Sonny Styles (more on him later). Gemini, an artificial intelligence machine that gathers its intelligence from the takes put forth by humans, stuck with the status quo, pairing Love with second-year quarterback Cam Ward in the backfield in Nashville.

NFL DRAFT ODDS:Which team will draft Jeremiyah Love?

5.New York Giants: LB Sonny Styles, Ohio State

Much like Love, Styles rocketed up draft boards after a stellar performance at the combine. His measurements, testing numbers and on-field drill work established that Styles is something of a freak athlete. It firmly placed him in the top-five conversation in the 2026 draft class despite playing a position not considered to be "premium" in the modern NFL. Gemini once again went with the status quo, following dozens of mock drafts since the combine that have sent Styles to New York at No. 5.

More:Best landing spots for Ohio State LB Sonny Styles

6.Cleveland Browns: OT Francis Mauigoa, Miami (Fla.)

The Browns need help on the offensive line. Cleveland has emerged as a popular landing spot for OT1 – whoever draft experts feel that is – in mock drafts, presuming Arizona goes Bailey/best edge rusher available at No. 3. Google's LLM sent Miami's right tackle to Cleveland. Perhaps that was in order to give second-year lefty quarterback Dillon Gabriel a blind-side blocker or perhaps because the Browns need all the help they can get, wherever they can get it on the O-line.

7.Washington Commanders: WR Carnell Tate, Ohio State

Gemini has WR1 come off the board at No. 7. The Commanders have been a popular landing spot for the draft's top wide receiver for many draft experts, as well as for Tate's teammate, safety Caleb Downs. According to Google's artificial intelligence, Washington should opt to enhance its receiving corps with Deebo Samuel hitting free agency and Terry McLaurin hampered by injuries last year.

8.New Orleans Saints: CB Mansoor Delane, LSU

And now CB1 is off the board. Delane is the top-rated cornerback on Ostly's big board for his excellent play in pass coverage during his collegiate career. After Kool-Aid McKinstry's 2025 breakout, the Saints let Alontae Taylor walk in free agency this offseason. Gemini strayed from the more common choice for New Orleans to draft a wide receiver at No. 9 to replace Taylor with another starting cornerback.

9.Kansas City Chiefs: S Caleb Downs, Ohio State

With the No. 9 overall pick, Google Gemini had the Chiefs select one of the best athletes in the class. Downs is not expected to be a top-five pick because of the position he plays, but the No. 7-10 range has been a common landing spot. With Downs, the Chiefs would get their replacement for Bryan Cook and bolster a secondary that also lost cornerbacks Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.

10.Cincinnati Bengals: Edge Rueben Bain Jr., Miami (Fla.)

Arm length be damned. Despite the concerns about how Bain's shorter-than-average arms could influence his play at the pro level, the physicality and power he brings to his position have kept him in the top-10 range of most mock drafts. Here, Gemini gets the Bengals their replacement for edge rusher Trey Hendrickson, who left for the Ravens on a multi-year deal in free agency.

11.Miami Dolphins: WR Makai Lemon, Southern California

Dolphins general manager Jon-Eric Sullivan has stripped down the entire roster, including cutting quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and wide receiver Tyreek Hill, before trading away wideout Jaylen Waddle. Now, Sullivan has to rebuild the roster. The AI's first step in simulating that rebuild is drafting a consistent wide receiver that new quarterback Malik Willis should be able to trust – Lemon had just two drops on 108 targets in 2025.

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12.Dallas Cowboys: CB Jermod McCoy, Tennessee

Dallas' defense was clearly the weak link in 2025. While the Cowboys have already signed Cobie Durant and Corey Ballentine in free agency, cornerback remains a position of need. Gemini agreed with that sentiment in its mock draft selection, sending a tremendous athlete to Dallas at No. 12. Did Google's AI consider the injury concerns with McCoy, who did not play in 2025 with an ACL tear? Unlikely, given its propensity for copying the work of other draft experts as an LLM, but it's still something worth noting.

13.Los Angeles Rams(viaAtlanta): WR Jordyn Tyson, Arizona State

Los Angeles proved how close it is to Super Bowl contention with its playoff run to the NFC championship game last year. As a result – and after filling their biggest need by trading for cornerback Trent McDuffie – the Rams can focus on filling in depth at key positions to plan for the future. In this case, Gemini's Tyson selection gives the NFC runners-up an excellent third wide receiver that can eventually replace veteran Davante Adams – and more immediately give the Rams the league's best one-two-three punch at wideout.

14.Baltimore Ravens: OG Olaivavega Ioane, Penn State

No more Tyler Linderbaum in the interior of the Ravens' offensive line. He signed with the Raiders in free agency. Google Gemini gave Baltimore a reinforcement in Linderbaum's absence with the top guard in the draft class.

15.Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Edge Keldric Faulk, Auburn

Tampa Bay ranked 11th in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN, but its defense finished in the bottom half of the league in sacks. Gemini's pick of Faulk at No. 15 is higher than the consensus of other mock draft experts, but it does fill a position of need for the Buccaneers and gives them more size in the defensive front seven.

16. New York Jets (viaIndianapolis): QB Ty Simpson, Alabama

Draft experts have started to say that there is more of an indication that Simpson could hear his name called on Day 1 of the draft. Gemini had the Jets improve their defense at a premium position with the No. 2 overall pick, and now the AI has Gang Green fill its most important offensive position with the Alabama quarterback. It's unclear what the AI tool's plans are for Simpson – whether he'll start immediately or take over from veteran Geno Smith, whom the Jets just re-acquired in a trade.

HUMAN MOCK DRAFT:Surprises in top 10 of latest first-round projection

<p style=OT Tytus Howard: Traded to Cleveland Browns (previous team: Houston Texans)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=CB Trent McDuffie: Traded to Los Angeles Rams (previous team: Kansas City Chiefs)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=RB David Montgomery: Traded to Houston Texans (previous team: Detroit Lions)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" /> <p style=WR DJ Moore: Traded to Buffalo Bills (previous team: Chicago Bears)

" style="max-width:100%; height:auto; border-radius:6px; margin:10px 0;" loading="lazy" />

2026 NFL offseason tracker: Player signings, trades

OT Tytus Howard:Traded to Cleveland Browns(previous team: Houston Texans)

17.Detroit Lions: OT Kadyn Proctor, Alabama

As the first round reaches its second half, Gemini continues to hit on picks that fill positions of need. The Lions need major help on the O-line with Taylor Decker's release, and Proctor can fill in immediately as a big-bodied lineman whom Detroit could choose to slide into a guard spot as well.

18.Minnesota Vikings: S Dillon Thieneman, Purdue

No risks for Google Gemini at pick No. 18. Minnesota has been a very popular landing spot for Thieneman after the Vikings let veteran safety Harrison Smith hit free agency at age 37.

19.Carolina Panthers: TE Kenyon Sadiq, Oregon

The Panthers filled several positions of need with excellent players in free agency: offensive tackle Rasheed Walker, edge rusher Jaelan Phillips and linebacker Devin Lloyd. So Google Gemini must have figured, "Let's get quarterback Bryce Young another excellent pass-catcher, one who can also be a willing blocker in the run game and easily the top tight end in the class." Hard to argue with that logic.

20. Dallas Cowboys (viaGreen Bay): Edge Akheem Mesidor, Miami (Fla.)

Dallas drafts to double down on defense. Besides being a tongue twister, it's a sound strategy for Gemini to follow for the Cowboys. Like McCoy, Gemini's earlier pick for the Cowboys, there are concerns with Mesidor. Namely, his age – he'll be a 25-year-old rookie – and history of foot injuries. Looking past that, Dallas could benefit from adding a productive pass-rusher in the wake of last year's Micah Parsons trade.

21.Pittsburgh Steelers: WR Denzel Boston, Washington

A bit of a head-scratcher here from Gemini, but still a pick that could have sound logic. Offensive line feels like it should be a bigger priority for the Steelers in this draft. Keeping whoever starts at quarterback (Aaron Rodgers?) upright is key, and Pittsburgh could use a replacement for Pro Bowl guard Isaac Seumalo, who departed in free agency. The Steelers addressed their wide receiver need by trading for and extending Michael Pittman Jr., but Boston brings some younger depth to the Steelers' receiving room.

22.Los Angeles Chargers: OT Spencer Fano, Utah

This is not the best pick for the Chargers. Starting tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater will be back from their injuries in 2026, and Los Angeles has some pressing needs on the defensive side of the ball, namely at edge rusher. But Fano gives the Bolts valuable depth as a potential swing tackle, or maybe Gemini envisioned Fano starting on the interior. We concede it makes sense for the Chargers to add offensive line help after last year's disaster. If Fano falls this far, Los Angeles should probably pounce after so many edge rushers came off the board early in this mock.

23.Philadelphia Eagles: S Emmanuel McNeil-Warren, Toledo

Would have thought edge rusher would be a higher priority for the Eagles after their shortcomings rushing the passer in 2025. But like the Chargers before them, perhaps Gemini sees Philadelphia as pressured into seeking help elsewhere on the roster after several top edge rushers came off the board early. McNeil-Warren gives the Eagles a secondary defender to replace Reed Blankenship after his free agency departure.

24.Cleveland Browns(viaJacksonville): WR Chris Brazzell II, Tennessee

This is arguably the most shocking pick by Gemini in its mock draft. Brazzell ranks 49th on Ayrton Ostly's 2026 big board and sits behind three other wide receiver prospects still on the board at this point in the mock draft. Even after his 4.37-second 40 at the NFL combine, Brazzell has largely been left out of other experts' first-round mock drafts. While Cleveland does need help at wide receiver, it's unclear why Gemini pulled up Brazzell into the first round. It's a reach, given that Texas A&M's KC Concepcion and Indiana's Omar Cooper Jr. are still available.

25.Chicago Bears: DT Kayden McDonald, Ohio State

Chicago could really use more help in the secondary – where it let five players walk in free agency – or on the edge after ranking 31st in pass-rush win rate, per ESPN. McDonald could develop more pass-rush skills in the future, but he helps the Bears' need for a run stopper more immediately. With edge rushers T.J. Parker (Clemson) and Cashius Howell (Texas A&M) still available, it would have been nice to see Gemini opt for one of them here instead.

26.Buffalo Bills: Edge R Mason Thomas, Oklahoma

On one hand, it's important the Bills keep reinforcing their pass-rush attack – even after signing Bradley Chubb – after struggling last year. On the other hand, Thomas is still not the best edge rusher available at this point in the draft. His smaller frame might mean he projects better as a rotational, depth piece and pass-rush specialist rather than a bona fide, three-down contributor and first-round pick.

27.San Francisco 49ers: OT Caleb Lomu, Utah

One of the better picks of the back half of this mock draft so far. Lomu is a prospect still in need of further development, which makes him a perfect match for a 49ers team with a talented, aging veteran in Trent Williams that Lomu could learn from and replace one day.

28.Houston Texans: CB Avieon Terrell, Clemson

Secondary is the No. 1 area of strength for the Texans, so this pick does not make much sense. Houston strengthened its defensive backs situation already by signing safety Reed Blankenship, and its cornerbacks room is already loaded. Terrell is a very good player, but he does not fit here.

29. Kansas City Chiefs (viaRams): Edge Nic Scourton, Texas A&M

It would be a bold strategy for the Chiefs to draft a player who is already in the NFL. The Panthers drafted Scourton in the second round last year, so this selection is letting some of the cracks show in the AI's logic.

30. Miami Dolphins (viaDenver): CB Colton Hood, Tennessee

Not a perfect second selection for the Dolphins, a team that could really use some help on the edge after releasing Bradley Chubb. But even though Miami signed four cornerbacks in free agency, all of them are on one-year deals. Hood would bring a blend of strong pass coverage and willing run tackling to the Dolphins' secondary, elevating the position group as a whole.

31.New England Patriots: DT Peter Woods, Clemson

Gemini flagged this selection as the steal of the draft if things pan out this way, and it's understandable. Woods ranks as the 17th overall prospect on Ayrton Ostly's big board for his athleticism and abilities as a pass-rusher on the interior. Pairing a player like that with Milton Williams on the Patriots' defensive line would be a scary sight for opposing offensive linemen.

32.Seattle Seahawks: WR KC Concepcion, Texas A&M

This would have been a good spot for another running back to replace Kenneth Walker in the backfield or a cornerback to replace Riq Woolen in the secondary. Concepcion's abilities as a dynamic receiver and returner would be valuable for a lot of teams, but they seem to clash with Seattle incumbent Rashid Shaheed, whom the Seahawks just re-signed.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:NFL mock draft 2026: Google Gemini predicts entire first round

NFL mock draft 2026: AI predicts lowly Jets landing QB Ty Simpson

Artificial intelligencehas come a long way in the last few years. But the "intelligence" in question can occasi...
US appeals court sides with Trump administration on detaining immigrants without bond

The U.S. can continue to detain immigrants without bond, an appeals court ruled on Wednesday, handing a victory to the Trump administration's crackdown on immigration.

Associated Press

The opinion from a panel of the 8th Circuit Court of Appeals in St. Louis overturned a lower court ruling that required that a native of Mexico arrested for lacking legal documents be given a bond hearing before an immigration judge.

It's the second appeals court to rule in favor of the administration on this issue. The 5th Circuit in New Orleansruled last monththat the Department of Homeland Security's decision to deny bond hearings to immigrants arrested across the country was consistent with the Constitution and federal immigration law.

Both appeals court opinions counterrecent lower court decisionsacross the country that argued the practice is illegal.

InNovember, a district court decision in Californiagranted detained immigrants with no criminal history the opportunity to request a bond hearing and had implications for noncitizens held in detention nationwide.

Under past administrations,most noncitizenswith no criminal recordwho were arrested awayfrom the border had an opportunity to request a bond hearing while their cases wound through immigration court. Historically, bond was often granted to those without criminal convictions who were not flight risks, and mandatory detention was limited to recent border crossers.

In the case before the 8th Circuit, Joaquin Herrera Avila of Mexico was apprehended in Minneapolis in August 2025 for lacking legal documents authorizing his admission into the United States. The Department of Homeland Security detained Avila without bond and began deportation proceedings.

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He filed a petition seeking immediate release or a bond hearing. A federal judge in Minnesota granted the petition, saying the law authorized detention without bond when a person seeking admission is not clearly and beyond a doubt entitled to being admitted. The judge found this was not the case for Avila because he had lived in the country for years without seeking naturalization, asylum or refugee status and thus wasn't "seeking admission."

Circuit Court Judge Bobby E. Shepherd wrote for the majority in a 2-1 opinion that the law was "clear that an "applicant for admission" is also an alien who is "seeking admission," and so Avila couldn't petition on these grounds.

Circuit Court Judge Ralph R. Erickson dissented, saying that Avila would have been entitled to a bond hearing during his deportation hearings if he had been arrested during the past 29 years. Now, he wrote, the Circuit Court has ruled that Avila and millions of others would be subject to mandatory detention under a novel interpretation of "alien seeking admission" that hasn't been used by the courts or five previous presidential administrations.

The American Civil Liberties Union, which is representing Avila, didn't immediately return an email message seeking comment.

Attorney General Pam Bondi hailed the ruling, writing in a social media post: "MASSIVE COURT VICTORY against activist judges and for President Trump's law and order agenda!"

At question is the issue of whether the government is required to ask a neutral judge to to determine whether it is legal to imprison someone.

It's based on thehabeas corpus, which is a Latin legal term referring to the constitutional right for people to legally challenge their detention by the government.

Immigrants have filed more than 30,000 habeas corpus petitions in federal court alleging illegal detention since Trump took office, according to a tally by The Associated Press. Many have succeeded.

US appeals court sides with Trump administration on detaining immigrants without bond

The U.S. can continue to detain immigrants without bond, an appeals court ruled on Wednesday, handing a victory to the Tr...
Growth rate slowed in US metro areas in 2025, with steepest drops along the southern border

Growth rates in U.S. metro areas dropped the steepest in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border last year because ofdeclines in immigrantswhile counties along Florida's Gulf Coast lost residents due toa series of hurricanes, according to new population estimates released Thursday by the U.S. Census Bureau.

Associated Press FILE - Traffic moves along Interstate 10 near downtown Houston, April 30, 2020. (AP Photo/David J. Phillip, File) FILE - A Marine stands front of newly-installed concertina wire lining one of two border walls separating Mexico from the United States during a news conference, March 21, 2025, in San Diego. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull, File)

Census Counties Metro Population

The estimates showed that a majority of metro areas and counties had slower population gains last year, which the bureau attributed primarily to a slowdown in international migration, compared to the previous year when an influx of immigrants had helped urban areas recover from the COVID-19 pandemic a few years earlier.

The average growth rate for metro areas fell from 1.1% in 2024 to 0.6% in 2025.

The figures, covering one year through July 2025, reflect the initial months of President Donald Trump's second term and the beginning ofhis administration's immigration crackdown, Withan aging Americaand birth rates in the U.S. declining over the past two decades, immigration has become an important source of growth in many communities.

"With so little natural increase, migration determines whether an area grows or declines, particularly in the big metro cores that have continuous domestic out-migration and are dependent on immigration," said Kenneth Johnson, senior demographer at the University of New Hampshire.

Immigrant losses

Three metro areas along the U.S-Mexico border stretching from Arizona to Texas had the steepest drops in population growth rates in 2025, according to the Census Bureau.

The growth rate in Laredo, Texas, dropped from 3.2% to 0.2%. It went from 3.3% to 1.4% in Yuma, Arizona, and declined from 1.2% into negative territory at -0.7% in El Centro, California. All three experienced growth in 2024 because of an influx of thousands of immigrants.

"That pattern suggests a sharper rise-and-fall effect in border regions, where international migration plays a more central role in year-to-year population change," said Helen You, interim director of the Texas Demographic Center.

As in 2024, the top destinations for immigrants in pure numbers in 2025 were counties that are home to Houston, Miami and Los Angeles. But the drop in immigrant numbers in those counties was stark. Nine out of 10 U.S. counties had lower levels of immigration in 2025 compared to 2024, according to the Census Bureau.

urricane migration

Two destructive hurricanes,HeleneandMilton, tore through Gulf Coast counties in Florida in fall 2024, leaving behind tens of billions of dollars in damage. The storms also caused residents to leave, according to the population estimates.

Pinellas County, which is home to St. Petersburg, lost almost 12,000 residents, the second most in the U.S., trailing only Los Angeles County, which has been losing residents all decade. Pinellas County relies on migration for growth because deaths outpace births more than in any county in the U.S.

Taylor County, a tiny community ravaged by the hurricanes in Florida's Big Bend area, had the steepest growth rate decline among U.S. counties last year, with a -2.2% drop.

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But the hurricane migration wasn't limited to Florida. In the Blue Ridge Mountains, the county that is home to Asheville, North Carolina, had more than 2,000 residents leaving in the months after the remnants of Hurricane Helene destroyed homes and cut off power and communications to mountain towns.

Growth leaders

The New York metro area slid from growing by the most people in 2024 to ranking No. 13 in 2025 because of the drop in immigrants.

Instead, two perennial growth powerhouses this decade, the Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth metro areas, were at the top of the list, followed by the Atlanta, Phoenix and Charlotte, North Carolina, metro areas.

Several midsize metros in Florida and South Carolina had the largest growth rates. Ocala, Florida, located 80 miles (129 km) northwest of Orlando and known for its horse farms, led the nation at 3.4%. It was followed by: metro Myrtle Beach, South Carolina,which has become a retirement haven; Spartanburg, South Carolina; Lakeland, Florida, located between the much larger metros of Tampa and Orlando; and Punta Gorda, Florida, about 35 miles (56.3 km) north of Fort Myers.

Sunbelt exurban growth

The far-out suburbs were top destinations among those who had moved from somewhere else in the United States.

They were led byCollin County, Texas,outside Dallas; Montgomery County, Texas, outside Houston; Pinal County, Arizona, outside Phoenix; and Pasco and Polk counties outside Tampa.

The rapid growthof far-flung exurbsis an after-effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the Census Bureau. Rising housing costs drove people farther from cities, and remote work allowed many to do their jobs from home at least part of the week.

Where the babies are

Even though New York had more people moving out than moving in, births allowed the metro area to gain more than 32,000 residents. The New York metro area led the nation in natural increase, or births outpacing deaths, followed by the Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston metros.

The metros where deaths outpaced births in the greatest numbers were Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, and several Florida communities with large senior populations — the Sarasota, Daytona Beach and Tampa metro areas.

The two Texas metro areas topped the charts in natural increase because of their age structure and the fact that they have gained more people than anywhere in the U.S., You said.

"Decades of domestic and international in-migration have produced relatively young populations, with a large share of residents in childbearing ages, alongside comparatively smaller proportions of senior populations," she said.

Follow Mike Schneider on the social platform Bluesky:@mikeysid.bsky.social.

Growth rate slowed in US metro areas in 2025, with steepest drops along the southern border

Growth rates in U.S. metro areas dropped the steepest in communities along the U.S.-Mexico border last year because ofdec...
Iran rejects US ceasefire plan, issues its own demands as strikes land across the Mideast

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran on Wednesday dismissed an American planto pause the war in the Middle Eastand launched more attacks on Israel and Gulf Arab countries, including strikes that hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, sparking a fire.

Associated Press

Iran's defiancecame as Israel launched airstrikes on Tehran and as the United States deployedparatroopers and more Marines to the region.

Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said in an interview on state TV that his government has not engaged in talks to end the war, "and we do not plan on any negotiations." That followed a report from Iranian state TV's English-language broadcaster quoting an anonymous official as saying Iran rejected America's ceasefire proposal and has its own demands to end the fighting.

Earlier, two officials from Pakistan, which transmitted the U.S. plan to Iran, describedthe 15-point proposalbroadly, saying it addressed sanctions relief, a rollback of Iran's nuclear program, limits on missiles and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's oil is shipped.

An Egyptian official involved in themediation effortssaid the proposal also includes restrictions on Iran's support for armed groups. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss details not yet released.

President Donald Trump, speaking at a fundraiser Wednesday night in Washington, insisted that Iran still wants to cut a deal.

"They are negotiating, by the way, and they want to make a deal so badly, but they're afraid to say it because they figure they'll be killed by their own people," said Trump, who added: "They're also afraid they'll be killed by us."

Iran has long insisted it won't discuss its ballistic missile program or its support of regional militias, which it views as key to its security. And itsability to control passage through the Strait of Hormuzrepresents one of its biggest strategic advantages.

Iran's attacks on regional energy infrastructure, along with its restrictions on the strait, have sent oil prices skyrocketing, putting pressure on the U.S. to find a way to end the chokehold and calm markets.

More U.S. troops are on the way to the Middle East

At least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne Division will be sent to the Mideast in the coming days, three people with knowledge of the plans told The Associated Press. They spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans.

The paratroopers are trained to jump into hostile or contested areas to secure key territory and airfields.

The Pentagon is also sending about 5,000 more Marines trained in amphibious assaults and thousands of sailors to the region.

Most Americans believe the U.S. military action against Iran has gone too far and many are worried about the cost of gasoline, according to anew AP-NORC poll.

The survey indicates that while Trump's approval rating is holding steady, the conflict could be swiftly turning into a major political liability for his Republican administration.

Diplomatic efforts face major challenges

Mediators are pushing for possible in-person talks between the Iranians and the Americans, perhaps as soon as Friday in Pakistan, the Egyptian and Pakistani officials said.

Trump has said the U.S. is"in negotiations right now"and that the participants include special envoy Steve Witkoff, Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance. Trump has not identified anyone from Iran taking part.

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Press TV, the English-language broadcaster on Iranian state television, cited an Iranian five-point proposal that includes a halt to killings of its officials, safeguards against future attacks on Iran, reparations for the war, the end of hostilities and Iran's "exercise of sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz."

Those measures, particularly reparations and its continued chokehold over the Strait of Hormuz, likely will be unacceptable to the White House.

While Iran and Oman both have territory in the strait, its narrow shipping channels areviewed as international watersthrough which all ships can travel.

Anytalks between the U.S. and Iranwould face monumental challenges. It's not clear who in Iran's governmenthas the authority and willingness to negotiate.

Iran remains highly suspicious of the United States, which twice under the Trump administration has attacked during high-level diplomatic talks, including when the war began on Feb. 28.

Israel launches new strikes on Iran — and also comes under attack

The Israeli military said Wednesday it had carried out waves of airstrikes in Tehran, following strikes a day earlier targeting an Iranian submarine development center in Isfahan.

Missile alert sirens sounded in Israel as Iran and the Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah in Lebanon launched attacks. Hezbollah has fired rockets into northern Israel around the clock since the war began.

Iran also kept up pressure on its Gulf Arab neighbors. Saudi Arabia's Defense Ministry said it had destroyed at least eight drones in its oil-rich Eastern Province, and missile alert sirens sounded in Bahrain. Kuwait said it shot down multiple drones but that one hit a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport.

Meanwhile, six people allegedly linked to Hezbollah were arrested in Kuwait for planning to assassinate Gulf leaders, Kuwait's Ministry of Interior said in a statement. Fourteen associates had fled the country, officials said.

More than 1,500 people have been killed in Iran, its Health Ministry says. Twenty people have been killed in Israel; two Israeli soldiers have also been killed in Lebanon. At least 13 U.S. military members have been killed. More than a dozen civilians in the occupied West Bank and Gulf Arab states have also died.

Nearly 1,100 people have died in Lebanon, authorities said. In Iraq, where Iranian-supported militant groups have entered the conflict, 80 members of the security forces have been killed.

Energy prices fall back but remain high

The news of potential negotiations drove down the price of oil. Brent crude oil, the international standard, was trading around $100 a barrel Wednesday, after nearing as high as $120 earlier last week. That's still up around 35% from the start of the war.

Economists and leaders have warned of far-reaching effects if energy prices remain high — from rising prices on food and other basics to higher rates for mortgages and auto loans.

Iran has allowed a small number of ships through the Strait of Hormuz, but has said no ships from the U.S., Israel or countries seen as linked to them can pass.

Madhani reported from Washington, Corder from The Hague, Netherlands, and Ahmed from Islamabad. Associated Press writers Samy Magdy in Cairo, Natalie Melzer in Tel Aviv, Israel, Qassim Abdul-Zahra in Baghdad and Nicholas Riccardi in Washington contributed to this report.

Iran rejects US ceasefire plan, issues its own demands as strikes land across the Mideast

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran on Wednesday dismissed an American planto pause the war in the Middle Eastand lau...
Seahawks keep key part of offense with Jaxon Smith-Njigba's record-setting extension

RENTON, Wash. (AP) — Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider saidJaxon Smith-Njigba's record-setting contract extensionshows the team's commitment to keep winning.

Associated Press Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba smiles during an NFL football news conference, Wednesday, March 25, 2026, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Kevin Ng) Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, right, speaks as head coach Mike Macdonald listensduring an NFL football news conference on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Kevin Ng) Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, center, speaks with media during an NFL football news conference on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Kevin Ng) Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11) looks on during an NFL football news conference on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Kevin Ng) Seattle Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald, from left, wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba (11), and general manager John Schneider, pose for a photo during an NFL football news conference on Wednesday, March 25, 2026, in Seattle. (AP Photo/Kevin Ng)

Seahawks Njigba Football

Smith-Njigba signed his extension with the Seahawks on Wednesday. The four-year, $168.8 million deal, with $120 million guaranteed will make the 24-year-old the highest-paid wide receiver in the NFL, and should help put to rest any Seattle fans' concerns with the team going up for sale shortly after the Seahawkswon their second Super Bowl, and first under owner Jody Allen.

"She's like, let's go win another one; let's get after it," Schneider said of Allen. "There's another world out there that is coming. We're getting ready for it. As of right now, we are just keep ripping like we always have."

The franchise's latest move keeps Smith-Njigba under contract with Seattle through the 2031 season. Smith-Njigba's deal surpasses that of Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja'Marr Chase, whosigned a $161 million extension with $112 million guaranteed last March.

The reigningAP NFL Offensive Player of the Yearadmitted there's a level of satisfaction with his new contract after setting the team record foryards receiving(1,793) and receptions (119) in a single season.

"This proves that I'm good for a long time. You know what I'm saying?" Smith-Njigba said. "I guess that's what it proves."

Coach Mike Macdonald, Schneider and the rest of the Seahawks front office would love to keep as many players as possible, but retaining Smith-Njigba was a priority the whole franchise could get behind.

"Obviously draft and retain, I mean, this is a great example of drafting and developing and keeping it in-house," Schneider said. "And that's been our priority since we got here in 2010. So that hasn't changed."

Both Seattle's roster and coaching staff have changed a bit since the Seahawks hoisted the Lombardi trophy six weeks ago.

Key free agents such as running back and Super Bowl MVP Kenneth Walker III (Chiefs), safety Coby Bryant (Bears), linebacker Boye Mafe (Bengals), cornerback Riq Woolen (Eagles) and wide receiver Dareke Young (Raiders) have all moved on.

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It's unclear yet how Seattle intends to replace Walker's production, whether that's by committee with the likes of Emanuel Wilson, who was signed in free agency after three seasons with the Green Bay Packers, George Holani and Kenny McIntosh, or if the injured Zach Charbonnet will become the main option once he's healthy.

Seattle's offense will be led by a new coach infirst-year offense coordinator Brian Fleury. Smith-Njigba is eager to work with Fleury, who intends on utilizing an offensive scheme similar to that of former offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, who is now the Las Vegas Raiders head coach.

"Definitely ready to see what we're gunning toward and just get in the same language and get together," Smith-Njigba said. "So I'm excited for new opportunities."

A little more than five months remain untilthe Seahawks will open the NFL season. It did not take long for Seattle to turn into Smith-Njigba's home, which only made it easier for the Texas native to secure his future in the Pacific Northwest.

Macdonald has noticed Smith-Njigba leading by example.

"He's not the guy that's breaking every huddle, every team meeting and everything like that," Macdonald said. "But, what he does every day, what type of teammate he is, to the guys in that locker room, I mean, that speaks volumes, and that's where he does his talking."

Though the franchise still has to sort out its roster and who will own the team at some point, it's clear what Smith-Njigba hopes the Seahawks can accomplish in the 2026 season.

"The only thing better than one Super Bowl is two," Smith-Njigba said. "So just working to get there, whatever my team needs from me, I make sure I get it done."

AP NFL:https://apnews.com/hub/NFL

Seahawks keep key part of offense with Jaxon Smith-Njigba’s record-setting extension

RENTON, Wash. (AP) — Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider saidJaxon Smith-Njigba's record-setting contract...

 

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