About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement For a third straight week, what we see on the field has not matched with what we are told by the ESPN Football Power Index.
On Saturday, the Oregon Ducks looked as bad as we've seen them this season, losing a third game on the year, this time to the Illinois Fighting Illini , 21-10. With the loss, Oregon has all but been eliminated from the College Football Playoff, and it resulted in offensive coordinator Drew Mehringer being fired early on Sunday morning.
Going forward, it will be incredibly interesting to see how the Ducks move forward, considering that there are no longer major stakes on the line outside of pure pride. There's also a question of who is calling the offense, and who the starting quarterback will be, depending on whether or not Dante Moore returns from his concussion.
Despite all of that, ESPN's FPI still appears to be high on the Ducks. Oregon remains heavy favorites in all but one of their upcoming games, and they still have a percentile chance to make it to the CFP, according to the FPI.
Here's a look at the new FPI numbers from ESPN and what it means for the Ducks.
Nov 22, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Northwestern Wildcats head coach David Braun is seen against the Minnesota Golden Gophers during the first half at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Patrick Gorski-Imagn Images Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 70.2%
Analysis: Northwestern is 6-1 and ranked No. 18 in the nation with an explosive offense and a competent defense. That doesn't sound like an easy test for the Ducks. Despite that, Oregon is a 3.5-point favorite at home, and ESPN FPI gives them a 70% chance to win this game. If Moore is back under center, that may be feasible, but unless that's the case, I don't believe the numbers.
Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) runs past Ball State Cardinals defensive back Willizhuan Yates (4) during the NCAA football game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Sept. 5, 2026. Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 13.1%
Analysis: Ohio State will be without starting QB Julian Sayin for this game, but we saw how little that fact may matter for Oregon, considering they lost to Illinois backup QB Michael Clayton this past weekend. It's not surprising to see Ohio State as such a big favorite in this game. They're playing at home and appear to have a much more talented and well-coached team at this point.
Bryce Underwood #19 of the Michigan Wolverines celebrates after a 13-12 win over the Western Michigan Broncos at Michigan Stadium on September 05, 2026 in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 77.1%
Analysis: There may have been real confidence in Oregon's ability to win this game earlier in the year, but that appears to have faded. Michigan may not be a great team, but they are sound, and stout defensively. We will see what the Ducks look like offensively at this point in the year, but I don't have a ton of confidence.
Michigan State’s Sparty plants an MSU flag in the field prior to a game against Boston College at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing on Saturday, September 6, 2025. Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 81.2%
Analysis: Of all the games remaining on Oregon's schedule, this is undoubtedly the most winnable, but it's not going to be easy, coming on a short week on the road, between matchups against Michigan and Washington. As far as talent goes, the Ducks will have the edge, they just need to be coached up and ready to play.
Sep 6, 2026; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies running back Jayden Limar (17) carries the ball for the first down against the Washington State Cougars during the second quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn Images Oregon Percent Chance to Win, Per ESPN FPI: 85.8%
Analysis: You'd hope that a rivalry game is enough to get Oregon prepared and ready for a big-time matchup against Washington. While neither team may be playing for much, there will be a lot of pride on the line, and a major need for the Ducks to step up here.
Oregon Ducks vs. Boise State Broncos 2026 Percent Chance to Win Out: 4.8%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 1.9%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 0.1%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 0.1%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks heavily favored in all but 1 game, per ESPN FPI
Source: Sports
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