Hayden Winks Fantasy Analyst Thu, October 22, 2026 at 4:10 PM UTC · 22 min read About Our Ads Advertisement Advertisement Advertisement The Blueprint is my weekly column and basically everything that I use to build out the most accurate rankings I can. There will be an RB column , a WR column and this combination column on the onesie positions. You will find film notes and endless charts. Maybe enough charts to stress test the Yahoo website. I kid.
It's impossible to get every ranking thoroughly by Thursday Night Football, so be sure to keep checking in on these columns through Sunday morning. As always, my full rankings at every position are available .
Goff has been dealing in the Lions' high-scoring environment, averaging 23.0 half PPR points per game (QB2) with +0.31 EPA per dropback (QB3). He has thrown 2.4 passing touchdowns per game (first) and reached 297 passing yards per game (third) on the season.
This week's division matchup comes against a Green Bay defense that is 28th in half PPR points allowed to QBs. The Packers have kept opposing passers in check recently, holding Dak Prescott to 15.0 fantasy points and limiting Chicago's tandem to under 10 combined fantasy points in Week 5. They've done a great job of creating pressure and funneling passes underneath, so it'll be a test for C Cade Mays returning from injury. Detroit heads in as 3-point home favorites with the slate's highest implied team total at 28.25 points (first), so the markets don't seem to believe in what the Packers' defensive tape is showing.
2. Brock Purdy (at ATL) - 20.9 proj. points
Purdy enters Week 7 as fantasy's QB4 (22.7 PPG) while operating with elite efficiency at +0.37 EPA per dropback (QB2). His biggest test of the year is now, assuming Mike Evans (Achilles) will join the rest of the WR room on the sideline. Purdy has 26.0 rush YPG as a fallback plan, and I wouldn't doubt Purdy for as long as Kyle Shanahan has Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle.
San Francisco now faces an Atlanta defense that sits 14th in half PPR points allowed to opposing QBs. The Falcons have been much stingier on the ground, ranking 28th against QB rushing fantasy points compared to seventh against QB passing. Recent opponents have found solid production against Atlanta, including Caleb Williams (308 total yards), Tyler Huntley (QB9 overall), Tyler Shough (291 total yards) and Jordan Love (312 total yards). The 49ers carry an implied team total of 26.25 points (fifth).
3. Jordan Love (at DET) - 20.9 proj. points
Love has delivered steady scoring as the overall QB14 (19.7 PPG) with +0.13 EPA per dropback (QB15) across six starts. While his ground game is non-existent at 2.0 rushing yards per game, Love has generated 281 passing yards per game (fifth) and 11 touchdowns through the air. There hasn't been a more aggressive QB on film this year, and Love's deep ball placement has been outrageous. There are hundreds of yards and multiple scores left by drops from his weapons. Love is one of the top gunslingers in the NFL right now.
He now draws a dream spot against Detroit, which ranks first in half PPR points allowed to quarterbacks. Opposing offenses have lit up the Lions through the air, where Detroit ranks first in fantasy points allowed to QB passing in particular. Jacoby Brissett (QB7), Bryce Young (QB7), Geno Smith (QB4) and Josh Allen (40.8 half PPR points!!!) have gone nuts in recent ones. The Packers have a 25.25-point team total (sixth) as slight dogs in a dome environment.
4. Caleb Williams (vs. NE) - 20.2 proj. points
Williams had a great game in Week 6, playing more contained football and taking the easy play at a rate he's never done before. If he can blend that with his ridiculous plays on the move, then Williams will be very difficult to defend. Over his last 16 games, Williams is the QB7 in fantasy and his entire pass-catching group is healthy right now. Because the Bears took their time with his return to play, I feel confident that Caleb can run more if needed this week. His three rushing yards last week were a total outlier.
He gets a Thursday night date against a New England defense ranking 24th in half PPR points allowed to opposing QBs. New England has been tough on dual-threat options, ranking 22nd in points allowed to QB rushing and 22nd to QB passing. Chicago enters the contest as 3-point home favorites with a strong implied total of 26.75 points (third). It'll be fun to see draft buddies Caleb Williams and Drake Maye facing off here.
5. Drake Maye (at CHI) - 20.6 proj. points
Maye sits as the QB7 (21.2 PPG) on the season while posting +0.08 EPA per dropback (QB16). Over his last four games, his output has surged to 25.3 fantasy points per game and +0.21 EPA per dropback, highlighted by a 4-touchdown, 374-yard outing against Las Vegas in Week 5. His dual-threat role provides a real foundation, chipping in 30.8 rushing yards per game (eighth), but he absolutely needs A.J. Brown to play better now that Romeo Doubs (shoulder) is on IR.
Week 7 brings a matchup with a Chicago defense that ranks 17th in half PPR points allowed to QBs, largely driven by DC Dennis Allen's scheme, not individual talents. I have my doubts that it holds. Michael Penix Jr. didn't play well, yet still finished as the QB6 in fantasy last week. Jordan Love tossed the ball for 373 total yards the week before that. Chicago did get fun SCB Kyler Gordon last week but won't have EDGE1 Montez Sweat (suspension) again. New England travels as 3-point road underdogs with an implied total of 23.75 points (13th).
6. Joe Burrow (at BAL) - 20.9 proj. points
7. C.J. Stroud (vs. NYG) - 25.9 proj. points
8. Dak Prescott (at PHI) - 20.9 proj. points
9. Matthew Stafford (at LV) - 20 proj. points
Stafford continues to sling it at high volume, ranking second in the league with 299 passing yards per game. But he's not playing nearly as well and is currently the QB16 on the season with an EPA per dropback ranking of QB17. Part of the issue has been a big decrease in explosive play rates tied to a shrinking 20+ air-yard attempt rate, from 18% (third) last year to just 11% (23rd) this year. That's a speed-at-pass-catcher issue, an outlier high screen rate on late downs and more reliance on Kyren Williams in the pass game. Losing Davante Adams for 10-ish weeks further complicates their problems.
Now he draws a Raiders defense that is allowing the fifth-most half PPR points per game to quarterbacks (22.5). Las Vegas was tagged for 374 yards and four passing scores by Drake Maye two weeks ago, and it ranks fifth in QB passing points allowed. The Rams head on the road as 4.5-point road favorites with a 26-point team total (fifth).
10. Bryce Young (vs. TB) - 19.9 proj. points
11. Kyler Murray (vs. IND) - 18.9 proj. points
13. Patrick Mahomes (at SEA) - 19.4 proj. points
14. Tyler Shough (vs. PIT) - 19.4 proj. points
15. Kirk Cousins (vs. LAR) - 19 proj. points
16. Aaron Rodgers (at NO) - 18 proj. points
17. Deshaun Watson (at TEN) - 19.9 proj. points
19. Michael Penix (vs. SF) - 18.4 proj. points
20. Tanner McKee (vs. DAL) - 18.9 proj. points
McKee was actually good. He played mistake-free ball, didn't have any inaccuracies and threw the ball over the middle more often than Jalen Hurts has. McKee's arm is pretty nice. He's a rhythm passer who won't make many plays out of structure or with interesting arm angles, but he can lead receivers through zone windows and manipulate a zone defender when needed. McKee seems pretty poised.
Since 2024, McKee has thrown the ball between the hashes in the 0-20 air-yard range on 43-of-149 dropbacks. That's 29% of his dropbacks, leading to 9.6 YPA and an 86% completion percentage without an interception. That's great stuff. Since 2024, Hurts has thrown to this midfield range on 338-of-1383 dropbacks (24%), leading to 8.3 YPA and 76% completions. McKee's been better on these throws and attempts them more often.
McKee's throws to the sideline were on the money in Week 6, too. He gave Devonta Smith real opportunities for chunk plays all game, including on his TD grab and when he drew a DPI in man coverage. There was one miscommunication between this duo on a fade versus stop route, but that happens. The good news is McKee has the touch and velocity to execute this highly-used part of the playbook.
His upcoming matchup against Dallas is appealing on paper, as the Cowboys rank seventh in fantasy points allowed to QBs. Dallas has routinely yielded strong passing numbers to opposing signal-callers, coughing up 347 passing yards to C.J. Stroud and 276 yards to Jordan Love. Philadelphia sits as 4.5-point home underdogs with a 20.0-point team total (23rd).
21. Jacoby Brissett (vs. DEN) - 18.4 proj. points
23. Geno Smith (vs. MIA) - 18.4 proj. points
24. Malik Willis (at NYJ) - 14.9 proj. points
25. Sam Darnold (vs. KC) - 18.4 proj. points
26. Daniel Jones (at MIN) - 13.9 proj. points
27. Cam Ward (vs. CLE) - 13.9 proj. points
28. J.J. McCarthy (at HOU) - 15.4 proj. points
1. Brock Bowers (vs. LAR) - 69.5 proj. yards
Bowers has paced all tight ends over his last four games as the TE1 on TE1 usage, averaging 17.1 half PPR points on a massive 30% target share. Even in a quieter Week 6 outing where he posted 4-70-0 on nine targets, he handled 115 air yards and 14.9 expected half PPR points. Bowers drew a DPI in the end zone and had battles with Bills CB1 Christian Benford for about half the contest. They split those reps, while Bowers essentially dominated everyone else.
The Rams rank 31st in half PPR points allowed to tight ends (6.3 per game), holding Trey McBride to 8.8 points last week. Las Vegas enters as 4.5-point home underdogs with an implied team total of 21.5 points (17th).
2. Trey McBride (vs. DEN) - 69.5 proj. yards
McBride ranks as the TE6 on TE2 usage over his last four contests, averaging 10.3 targets and 15.3 expected half PPR points per game. He remains a positive regression candidate.
Denver sits 15th in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 10.7 per game, though they surrendered 16.2 points to Tyler Higbee in Week 3 and 15.0 to George Kittle in Week 4. Arizona is listed as 4.5-point home underdogs with a 19.5-point implied team total (24th). This game script is welcome, and the Broncos LB room has missed a lot of tackles to open the year.
3. George Kittle (at ATL) - 69.5 proj. yards
Kittle is the TE3 on TE5 usage across his last four games, averaging 14.6 half PPR points with four touchdowns in that stretch. Last week's season-high 19.0 expected half PPR points on eight targets are absolutely tied to the losses of Mike Evans (Achilles) and Deebo Samuel Sr. (hamstring). Neither is expected to play in Week 7. It'll likely be Christian Kirk, Jacob Cowing and Brandin Cooks at WR.
Atlanta ranks 11th in fantasy points allowed to tight ends at 12.5 half PPR points per game, recently yielding 15.5 points and a score to Colston Loveland. The Falcons have been fourth-best in rushing yards per game but fourth-worst in pass yards per game. It's safe to call them a pass funnel right now. San Francisco enters this road tilt as favorites with a 25.25-point implied total (seventh).
4. Tucker Kraft (at DET) - 49.5 proj. yards
Kraft sits as the TE15 on TE7 usage over his last four games, averaging 8.4 half PPR points and 10.9 expected points. His volume has ticked up recently, but he's made fewer back-breaking plays on film. Hopefully the rust has been kicked off now. He tied his season high with eight targets in Week 6, posting a 21% target share to bring his recent baseline to seven targets per game. Tucker is an upside TE1.
The Lions present an elite on-paper environment, entering Week 7 ranked first in half PPR points allowed per game to opposing tight ends (26.8). Detroit has conceded top-10 weekly TE finishes to Dalton Kincaid (TE3), Kenyon Sadiq (TE4) and Trey McBride (TE6) already this year. Green Bay carries a 24.8-point implied team total (eighth) as 3-point road underdogs. Kraft will see some of S Brian Branch in his return from a torn Achilles. That'll be an exciting matchup when they match up on ocassion.
5. Sam LaPorta (vs. GB) - 49.5 proj. yards
LaPorta stands as the TE4 on TE4 usage over his last four games, averaging 14.0 half PPR points and scoring in three of those contests. That recent scoring pace outstrips his season-to-date mark of 12.6 half PPR points (TE5), though his expected usage has remained essentially identical at 12.1 expected points per game.
Green Bay has been tough on tight ends, ranking 27th with only 7.6 half PPR points allowed per game and yielding a recent high of just 8.1 points to Austin Hooper. Detroit is positioned as 3-point home favorites with a slate-leading 27.75-point implied team total (first).
6. Colston Loveland (vs. NE) - 39.5 proj. yards
Loveland has 2.5 games with Caleb Williams, and the half game was a rainy game against the Vikings. He's been the TE4 and TE65 in them, on TE5 and TE27 usage, respectively. Last week's tape showed plenty of first-read targets, and many of them were in the red zone in multi-TE sets. Loveland looked the part and really could've had a second TD if he didn't get lost in the sauce. We can't completely throw out Weeks 2-5 with backups, but there's no doubt that Week 6 and what happened to close out his rookie season are the most important data points moving forward. He's a boom-bust TE1 with as much upside as anyone in this explosive offense.
New England has been stingy to tight ends, ranking 26th in half PPR points allowed per game to the position (7.8). Beyond Brock Bowers' TE2 finish in Week 5, the Patriots held Dalton Kincaid to 1.2 half PPR points (TE52) in Week 4 and Mason Taylor to 5.3 points (TE25) in Week 6. That said, the Patriots have CB1 Christian Gonzalez to shut down some of these WRs, so it's possible Loveland has the best pass-game matchup this week. Chicago enters as 3-point home favorites with an implied team total of 26.75 points (second).
7. Tyler Higbee (at LV) - 39.5 proj. yards
Higbee has been the TE10 on TE9 usage over the last month with Terrance Ferguson sidelined. Even last week's relative dud still included 31 of 38 routes and four receptions. That, of course, was with Puka Nacua and Davante Adams healthy. Adams is out for about 10 weeks (aka the regular season), and Ferguson isn't eligible to return from his ankle injury until Week 8 at the very earliest. This will be an excellent week for Higbee on paper. He had his best game of the year in Week 3 (TE7 on TE3 usage) without Nacua and Ferguson.
The Raiders have also had issues against TEs, allowing the sixth-most points to the position. As usual, the Rams have a high team total (26.5, fourth) with very little depth at WR. It's a great environment for him.
8. Isaiah Likely (at HOU) - 49.5 proj. yards
Likely has exploded into the TE2 on TE3 usage over his last four games, averaging 15.0 half PPR points on a 29% target share. He's exactly the TE2 on TE3 usage over the entire season, too, so this wasn't a Jameis Winston thing at all. J.J. McCarthy is willing to toss the ball up and should provide more athleticism than Winston, who couldn't drive the ball downfield on top of being immobile. This will be concerning QB play, but the lack of target competition stands out. Likely has also been inline on just 4% of his snaps this year, fully operating as a slot WR instead.
The Texans rank 25th in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 8.1 per game, but they haven't faced the top fantasy TEs in a bit. That said, they're healthier at LB now and were dominant against the position last season, so there's no way to spin this as a positive matchup at all. The Giants have the lowest team total of Week 6 (16.25) points as road dogs.
9. Travis Kelce (at SEA) - 49.5 proj. yards
Kelce added another 36 yards after the catch in Week 6's TE15 on TE22 usage outing, with a screen called back for penalty. He was just missed on a red zone out-cut, too, so this was the same mid-range TE1 role that he's had this season. He's the TE7 on TE17 usage this year and stands to benefit if Rashee Rice (hamstring) misses another game. Rice did not practice on Wednesday.
The matchup is absolutely concerning with the Seahawks hosting star players at LB, SCB and CB. They've allowed the fewest pass yards per game (157) this season, funneling just 6.8 half PPR points to TE rooms on average (29th). They haven't had a TE reach 40 total yards this month. Kansas City only projects for 20.0 points on the road.
10. Dallas Goedert (vs. DAL) - 39.5 proj. yards
Goedert ranks as the TE8 on TE15 usage across his four games, averaging 9.6 half PPR points on 7.4 expected points. After missing time early, his target volume has stabilized over the last two weeks, posting nine targets against Jacksonville and eight targets in Week 6 against Carolina. He turned that Week 6 workload into six catches for 61 scoreless yards while logging a season-high 54 air yards. Tanner McKee is fairly accurate and has historically thrown the ball over the middle more often with better results than Jalen Hurts. Do not downgrade Goedert and DeVonta Smith because of the QB play.
Dallas ranks 16th in half PPR points allowed per game to TEs at 10.2, but that's largely because they haven't faced many top-end TEs this season. There's nothing about this LB and S depth chart that makes this a scary matchup, especially looking at the game script. Philadelphia is listed as 4.5-point home underdogs with a 20-point implied total (23rd). Goedert hasn't hit 50 yards in his last four games against them, for what it's worth (extremely little).
11. Juwan Johnson (vs. PIT) - 39.5 proj. yards
Johnson started off very hot, but the Saints offense was shut down by the Vikings in Week 5 and were ahead early against the Giants last week, limiting pass attempts. Johnson's usage dipped to just 4.8 and 2.2 expected half PPR points over those games. The backup LT and Tyler Shough's hand injury could be hampering Johnson on the margins, but the more likely scenario is a middle ground emerges in France. Johnson is the TE10 on TE8 usage this season, fully buoyed by league-leading dropbacks to open the year.
The Steelers enter Week 7 ranked 18th in half PPR points allowed per game to TEs (9.7). Pittsburgh allowed top-10 weekly TE finishes to Mike Gesicki (TE11) in Week 3, Harold Fannin Jr. (TE10) in Week 4 and Tyler Warren (TE4) in Week 5. Part of this is because they have a great run DL and it's easiest to have a quick-hitting pass game to counter it. Johnson will see some of SCB Jalen Ramsey, who continues to play excellent ball. New Orleans is listed as 3.5-point home underdogs with an implied team total of 20.5 points (19th).
12. Kyle Pitts Sr. (vs. SF) - 39.5 proj. yards
After four straight games outside the top-36 TEs in expected half PPR points to open the year, Pitts has been the TE2 on TE5 usage and TE8 on TE9 usage in the last two games with Michael Penix Jr. He had four quick out route receptions last game, breaking multiple tackles for chunk gains. He scored twice, both inside the red zone. Pitts will benefit from the slightly more pass-heavy Penix offense for the rest of the year and remains one of the top contingent-based holds just in case something ever happened to Drake London.
A matchup with All-Pro LB Fred Warner is on deck. The 49ers are third-best against fantasy TEs, allowing just 6.5 fantasy points per game through six weeks. Chig Okonkwo (TE12) had a decent game with WR injuries around him on Monday Night Football, but they've kept everyone else in check, including Trey McBride (TE10). The Falcons are slight dogs at home with a 23.25-point team total (15th).
13. Hunter Henry (at CHI) - 39.5 proj. yards
Henry's role is increasing with Drake Maye playing better offense after some slight adjustments by the coaching staff. He also could be more involved with Romeo Doubs (shoulder) joining Mack Hollins on IR, especially if A.J. Brown (ankle) isn't going to be himself coming off a serious injury. Henry is the TE13 on TE25 usage and 4.0 targets per game over his last four games. He capped Week 6 with a season-high 12.8 half PPR points on five targets, posting a 17% target share with a 4-48-1 receiving line. Henry is the definition of a high-end TE2 in fantasy.
The Bears defense sits 23rd in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 8.5 per game. Chicago kept opposing tight ends fairly quiet before Week 6, when Kyle Pitts Sr. scored 20.5 points as the TE2 overall, while Tucker Kraft previously posted a 5-64-0 line (TE12) in Week 5. They did return ball-player SCB Kyler Gordon last week, so this isn't quite as easy of a matchup as it could've been. New England is listed as 3-point road underdogs with an implied total of 23.75 points (13th).
14. Pat Freiermuth (at NO) - 24.5 proj. yards
Freiermuth is still the TE11 on TE12 usage this season, even with last week's total dud in a fairly good on-paper matchup with the Bucs. The emergence of second-round rookie WR Germie Bernard, who is operating in the same portions of the field as Freiermuth, is something to monitor moving forward. That said, Freiermuth is a good player and the Steelers won't use a third WR. He'll be a TD-or-bust TE2 moving forward. He's only averaging 4.8 targets per game.
He faces a Saints defense ranking seventh in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 14.4 per game. New Orleans allowed 10 catches for 116 yards and a touchdown to Brock Bowers (TE2) in Week 3 and gave up six catches for 99 yards and a score to Isaiah Likely (TE1) in Week 6. Pittsburgh travels as 3.5-point road favorites, holding an implied team total of 24.0 points (13th). It's a good individual matchup.
15. Colby Parkinson (at LV) - 24.5 proj. yards
Parkinson had his first spike week of 2026 in Week 6's stunning loss to the Cardinals. He scored on a 13-personnel block-and-release concept near the goal line and found soft underneath spots against zone coverage on his other targets. His involvement will look like that, rather than on the downfield concepts we've seen from Terrance Ferguson (IR) before. Tyler Higbee is closer to that role, but that doesn't mean Parkinson isn't a viable fantasy TE2 in fantasy as a towering (6'7", 266lbs) red-zone threat with Davante Adams (hamstring) suddenly out for 10 weeks. Parkinson was the TE7 on TE7 usage in three games without Adams last season. His target share has jumped from 8% to 15% with and without Adams.
16. Harold Fannin Jr. (at TEN) - 24.5 proj. yards
Fannin is only the TE16 on TE19 usage this season. It's safe to say Fannin has a new role under new HC Todd Monken. One stat to summarize just that: Fannin has 0 screen targets this year. Last week's 2.8 expected half PPR points were a career low. I wouldn't bank on his upside-TE1 status returning for as long as Monken is calling plays with Denzel Boston and KC Concepcion active. Fannin is settling in as a streamable TE2.
The Titans rank 24th in half PPR points allowed to TEs, giving up 8.2 points per game. Mark Andrews found the end zone against Tennessee for 11.2 half PPR points in Week 4, but no tight end has surpassed 34 receiving yards against them over the past four weeks. Cleveland enters as 1.5-point road favorites with an implied team total of 19.5 points (24th).
17. Michael Mayer (vs. LAR) - 24.5 proj. yards
18. Darren Waller (vs. TB) - 24.5 proj. yards
We'll see if Lamar Jackson (ankle) plays. Andrews can't break tackles or hit explosives as he did before, so he's more TD-reliant than ever. He needs Lamar healthy for that to be a better fantasy path. Over the past four games, Andrews is the TE31 (!!!) on TE3 usage, turning 5.0 targets per game into just 21 yards per game. The return of Ja'Kobi Lane hurts on the margins, too.
The Bengals defense ranks ninth in half PPR points allowed to TEs at 13.0 points per game across five contests. Cincinnati has conceded ceiling games to the position already, yielding a 12-140-0 line to Dalton Schultz in Week 2 and 7-95-0 to Brenton Strange in Week 4. Compared to its CB1 spot, it's easiest to throw the ball against these Cincy LBs and Ss.
20. Tommy Tremble (vs. TB) - 14.5 proj. yards
21. T.J. Hockenson (vs. IND) - 39.5 proj. yards
22. Dalton Schultz (vs. NYG) - 24.5 proj. yards
23. AJ Barner (vs. KC) - 24.5 proj. yards
25. Mike Gesicki (at BAL) - 24.5 proj. yards
26. Jake Ferguson (at PHI) - 24.5 proj. yards
27. Darnell Washington (at NO) - 24.5 proj. yards
28. Evan Engram (at ARI) - 24.5 proj. yards
29. Mason Taylor (vs. MIA) - 24.5 proj. yards
Source: Sports
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